Monday, August 9 2021 14:07

ArmInfo.In Armenia, the specific debt burden per capita by July 1, 2021 had already reached $ 3 thousand from $ 2.6 thousand a year earlier. Moreover, the per capita  debt burden from external debt increased from $ 2 thousand to $ 2.3  thousand. At the same time, the population of Armenia has increased  over the year by only 1.6 thousand people - p to 2.965 million people  by July 1, 2021.

The coverage of external debt by gold and foreign exchange reserves  by July 1, 2021 increased slightly - to 46.6% from 44.3% a year  earlier, against the background of a more moderate y-o-y growth of  external debt than reserves - by 11.6% and 17.6%, respectively. As a  comparison, we note that a year earlier, on this date, external debt  grew relatively modest (9.7%), with a higher upward trend in reserves  (19.3%).

According to the preliminary data of the RA Ministry of Finance,  published by the Statistical Committee, by July 1, 2021, the state  debt of Armenia amounted to $ 8.869 billion (4.4 trillion drams),  accelerating the y-o-yl growth to 14.9% from 11.4% a year earlier.  This is due to the accelerating growth of both external and internal  debt. In particular, the external debt accelerated the y-o-y growth  from 9.7% to 11.6%, amounting to $ 6.678 billion (AMD 3.3 trillion),  while the growth of domestic debt accelerated from 17.5% to 26.1% -  to $ 2.191 billion (AMD 1.1 trillion).

In H1 2021, the national debt of Armenia increased by 11.3% due to  the growth of external debt by 10.2% and internal debt by 14.8%,  while a year earlier the six-month dynamics of these indicators was  more modest positive - the national debt by 5.4%, external debt by  3.4% and domestic by 13%.

In Q2 2021 alone, the national debt slowed down from 8.6% to 2.5%, as  a result of the reversal of the trend of external debt from an  ascending 10.9% to a descending 0.6%, while internal growth  accelerated from 1.1% to 13.1 %. As a comparison, we note that a year  earlier, the quarterly dynamics of public debt emerged from a 0.5%  decline to 5.9% growth, and also unfolded in foreign debt from a 0.9%  decline to 4.3% - growth, while maintaining growth in domestic debt  with an acceleration rate from 1.1% to 11.8%.

In the structure of external debt in H1 2021, the share of the  Government increased to 93% from 92.1% a year earlier, while the  share of the Central Bank fell to 7% from last year's 7.9%, amounting  in absolute terms to $ 6.210 billion and $ 468.1 million,  respectively. Moreover, the multidirectional y-o-y dynamics of the  external debt of the Government and the Central Bank was maintained.  In particular, the government's external debt accelerated its growth  from 11.7% to 12.7%, and the Central Bank's - slowed down the decline  from 9.6% to 1.5%.

In the structure of domestic government debt, government bonds  dominate with an increase in the share by July 2021 to 95.3% from  91.8% a year earlier ($ 2.1 billion or 1.03 trillion drams), with an  acceleration of y-o-y growth in absolute value from 25.4% to 30.8%.   And the remaining 4.7% (against 8.2% a year earlier) falls on the  share of Armenian Eurobonds - $ 104.7 million or 51.9 billion drams,  with a slowdown in the y-o-y decline in absolute value from 28.1% to  26.3%.

To note, the ratio of public debt to GDP at the end of 2020 was  67.4%, against 53.7% in 2019. And the ratio of external debt to GDP  increased from 42.4% in 2019 to 51.2% in 2020. According to the March  forecast of the World Bank, the national debt of Armenia will grow to  70.8% of GDP in 2021, with a slight decrease in 2022 to 70.6% of GDP.  And according to the April forecast of the IMF, the gross debt of the  Armenian government will reach 69.9% of GDP in 2021 (from 62.8% of  GDP in 2020), and then in 2022 it will modestly decrease to 68.8% of  GDP.  Armenia's gross international reserves, according to the IMF,  will increase from $ 2.6 billion in 2020 to $ 2.8 billion in 2021 and  will remain at this level in 2022. The IMF also predicts that the  coverage of imports by international reserves, after falling from 6.8  months in 2019 to 5.6 months in 2020, will continue to decline in the  next two years - in 2021 to 5.2 months and in 2022 to 4.7 months. At  the same time, the WB in its June forecast predicts the growth of  Armenia's GDP in 2021 by 3.4%, with an acceleration in 2022 to 4.3%,  and the IMF in its April forecast resulted in a meager growth of  Armenia's GDP in 2021 by 1%, with an acceleration rates in 2022 up to  3.5%. According to actual statistics, Armenia's GDP decreased by 7.4%  in 2020, but already from April 2021, economic activity began to grow  monthly, as a result of which, according to the results of the first  half of the year, the y-o-y growth amounted to 5%, and in June of  this year, compared to June last year- 8%.