Monday, June 6 2022 15:43

ArmInfo.In Armenia, economic activity in January-April 2022 increased by 9.4% per annum, against the backdrop of growth in exports and imports by 25.2% and 39.1%,  respectively, which was observed at a relatively restrained pace in  the same period a year ago - growth economic activity by 2.6% was  accompanied by an increase in exports and imports by 16.7% and 2.2%,  respectively.

This is evidenced by the final data of the RA  Statistical Committee, in which there are no data from the  agricultural sector, since they are published in the statistical  report only quarterly.

In terms of industry, in January-April 2022, growth was recorded in  all sectors, while the service sector and the energy complex were  more noticeable, while a year ago the service sector was in decline.  It is noteworthy that the current growth in economic activity turned  out to be higher than the rates of the pre- Covid similar period,  when 7% was recorded, with a downward trend in exports and imports,  by 8.6% and 1.9%, respectively, and the service sector showed the  highest growth ( 17%) and the only decline was in the energy sector  (9.2%).

An improvement in the y-o-y dynamics (January-April 2022 versus  January-April 2021) was observed in the service sector - with an exit  from a 2.9% decline to a 23.5% increase. Growth acceleration was  recorded in the trade sector from 4.8% to 7.8%, in the industrial  sector - from 0.9% to 2.6%, and in the energy complex - from 3.1% to  14.1%, while growth rates in the construction sector, on the  contrary, slowed down from 20.3% to 9%.

In April 2022 versus April 2021, economic activity increased by 8.8%  (against 23.2% growth in April 2021 versus April 2020). Growth was  observed in all sectors: the service sector - 27.1%, construction -  15.6%, trade - 8.6%, energy complex - 5.8%, and the industrial sector  - 1.2%. A year earlier, in April 2021 by April 2020, of the listed  areas, the service sector showed relatively restrained growth  (15.4%), while the rest of the sectors showed significantly higher  growth rates than the current ones: construction - 87.7%, trade -  47.8 %, the industrial sector - 16.9%, and the energy complex - 9%,  while it should be taken into account that the exit to such rates was  made from the recession in which the sectors found themselves in 2020  during the coronavirus pandemic with the introduction of a state of  emergency and restrictive measures. The following sectors  also  showed growth in the pre-Covid similar period (April 2019 to April  2018): the service sector - 16.2%, the industrial sector - 13.2%,  trade - 9%, the energy complex - 8.9%, construction - 1.8% .

And  in April 2022 alone, economic activity increased by 5.3%,  against an increase of 3.2% in April 2021.  On a monthly terms,almost  all sectors showed growth: the industrial sector - 11.7%,  construction - 8.5%, services - 2.1%, trade - 1.7%. Only the energy  complex lingered in the decline, with an acceleration of rates up to  13.9%. As a comparison, we note that a year earlier, in April 2021,  the industrial sector was in growth - 2.1%, the service sector -  1.2%, the construction sector - 1.1%, and the trade sector lingered  in the decline - with a noticeable slowdown to 0.2%, and the energy  complex - with an acceleration of up to 13%. Prior to this, in the  pre-Covid 2019, in April, only the service sector showed stagnation  low growth- 0.5%, while other industries were in decline:  construction - 10.8%, energy complex - 3.3%, industrial sector - 3%,  trade - 1.8%.

The price index of industrial products in January-April 2022 compared  to the same period in 2021 increased by 10.8%, in April 2022 compared  to April 2021 - by 9.4%, and in April 2022 alone - a decline of 2.4%  was recorded. A year earlier, a similar trend was observed in the  industrial products price index: in January-April 2021 compared to  the same period in 2020 - an increase of 8.1% was recorded, in April  2021 against April 2020 - an increase of 11% was recorded, and in  April 2021 alone - an increase of 0.4% was recorded. In pre-Covid  2019, the dynamics of the industrial products price index was similar  to the current one, but looked very modest: in January-April 2019  compared to the same period in 2018 - an increase of 0.4% was  recorded, in April 2019 compared to April 2018 - an increase of 0.6 %  was recorded, and in April 2019 alone - a decline of 3.5% was  recorded.

The consumer price index increased in January-April 2022 compared to  the same period in 2020 by 7.4%, in April 2022 compared to April 2021  - by 8.4%, and in April 2022 alone - by 2.3%, which is higher than  inflation similar periods a year ago: 5.4% per annum (in  January-April), 6.2% per annum (in April) and 1.3% (per month). In  pre-Covid 2019, in January-April, y-o-y inflation at 1.7% was  recorded, in April - y- o-y inflation at 2.2% was recorded, and in  April - 0.1% deflation was recorded.

According to statistical data in January-April 2022, in absolute  terms, the leadership is held by the trading sector with a volume of  1.1 trillion drams ($2.3 billion). the industrial sector is in second  place - 754.7 billion ($1.6 billion), the service sector is in third  place - 698.2 billion drams ($1.4 billion), and due to the lack of  data on the agricultural sector the construction sector is in fourth  place- 81.3 billion drams ($168.4 million). The volume of electricity  generation in January-April 2022 amounted to 3142.4 million kWh, of  which 677.1 million kWh in April alone.

At the same time, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia in  January-April 2022 accelerated growth to 33.8%, amounting to 1.4  trillion drams ($2.9 billion). In its structure, growth acceleration  was observed both in export - up to 25.2%, and in import - up to  39.1%, the absolute value of which reached 494 billion drams ($1.03  billion) and 907.7 billion drams ($1.9 billion) respectively. In  April 2022 alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 18.9%, due to  an increase in exports by 27.3% and imports by 14.6%, and compared to  April 2021, the growth in foreign trade turnover by 22.5% is  conditioned by an increase in exports by 19.8% and imports by 24.1%.  A year earlier, in January-April 2021, Armenia's foreign trade  turnover increased by 7.2% per annum, in particular, exports - by  16.7% and imports - by 2.2%, the growth of foreign trade turnover by  12.9% in April 2021 is conditioned by almost the same growth in  exports and imports - by 11.9% and 13.6%, respectively, and compared  to April 2020, the growth of these indicators turned out to be  impressive - 47.5%, 64.3% and 39.1%, respectively.

It should be noted that according to the April WB forecast for 2022,  Armenia's GDP growth will slow down to 1.2%, with a decline in  exports and imports by 8.5-12%. According to the May forecast of the  IMF for 2022, Armenia's GDP growth will slow down to 1.5%, with a  slowdown in export and import growth to 9.7-10.8%. According to the  March forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, GDP  growth in 2022 will slow down to 1.6%, with a decline in exports and  imports by 1.8-0.1%. According to actual statistics, Armenia's GDP in  2021 reached a 5.7% growth from a 7.4% decline in 2020, with a  reversal of the dynamics of exports and imports from a 3.9-17.7%  decline in 2020 to 19 .1-16.9% growth in 2021 (The average settlement  rate of the dram in April 2022 was 470.99 AMD/$1, and in  January-April - 482.55 AMD/$1).